TIPA ValueUP Program · Common Session
Connect, Build, Grow
2026 Investment Trends &
2027 Survival Strategy
2027 Survival Strategy
More government and local funding,
and a survival strategy for each company
and a survival strategy for each company
2026.10.22
Myung Seung-eun
CEO, VentureSquare
Vice Chair, Korea Early-Stage Accelerator Assn.
Adjunct Prof., Hanyang Univ. Grad. School of Entrepreneurship
Vice Chair, Korea Early-Stage Accelerator Assn.
Adjunct Prof., Hanyang Univ. Grad. School of Entrepreneurship
TIPA ValueUP
Business plan check
Business plan check
Scope and cash plan
for delayed investment
for delayed investment
Products and customers to keep, costs you can carry, and your decision date
Products & customers to keep
Spending & projects to stop
Date to cut back or pivot
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How to read the numbers
Announced, confirmed, deposited: three different stages
Announced
Government proposal · commitment
fundraising target
fundraising target
Confirmed
Budget passed by the Assembly
fund closing completed
fund closing completed
Deposited
After review and contract
in the company account
in the company account
A time gap at every stage · plan with deposited amounts only
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01 · 2026 Investment Trends
Korea and the U.S. raise rates again
Bank of Korea base rate
Two hikes from 2.50% · ▲0.50%p
First back-to-back hikes in 3 yrs 7 mos
First back-to-back hikes in 3 yrs 7 mos
3.00%
U.S. Fed policy rate
2026.09.16 FOMC · ▲0.25%p
First hike since 2023
First hike since 2023
3.75~4.00%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
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01 · 2026 Investment Trends
Record H1 investment, 2nd-highest fundraising
KRW 8.9 tn
New venture investment
▲54.3% year on year
▲54.3% year on year
KRW 8.4 tn
New venture funds formed
▲33.0% year on year
▲33.0% year on year
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01 · 2026 Investment Trends
ICT, equipment and bio lead investment
ICT services
Share 21.0% · ▲62.2%
KRW 1.86 tn
Electrical · machinery · equipment
Share 17.3% · ▲90.4%
KRW 1.54 tn
Bio · medical
Share 17.0% · ▲53.6%
KRW 1.50 tn
Top 3 sectors, H1 2026 · year on year
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01 · 2026 Investment Trends
AI and robotics at the center of large early-stage deals
Founded ≤3 years · deals of KRW 10 bn+
9 of 16
AI & robotics: 9 firms, KRW 315.3 bn
All 16 firms: KRW 421.8 bn
All 16 firms: KRW 421.8 bn
9 / 16 firms
AI · robotics
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01 · 2026 Investment Trends
Early-stage and non-capital-area investment up
Early-stage firms (founded ≤3 years)
KRW 1.83 tn
▲56.4%
Outside the capital area
KRW 1.06 tn
▲104.7%
H1 2026 · growth year on year
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01 · 2026 Investment Trends
Fewer non-AI early-stage deals
Non-AI early-stage deals
538 → 386 deals
▼28% · Q1–Q3 2026 vs. Q1–Q3 2025
Non-AI early-stage (seed to Series A) deals
538
2025
Q1–Q3
Q1–Q3
386
2026
Q1–Q3
Q1–Q3
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01 · 2026 Investment Trends
Exit profits concentrated in IPOs
IPO
Multiple of recovered principal · 2025
3.33x
Sale
Multiple of principal · about break-even
1.01x
1x principal
Share of recovered principal: sales 52.3% · IPO 33.2%
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01 · 2026 Investment Trends
A narrow IPO window, shares falling after listing
Share of 2026 new listings below IPO price
86.1%
31 of 36 new listings in 2026
31 / 36 firms
Below IPO price
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01 · 2026 Investment Trends
A wave of fund maturities
Total commitments of venture funds maturing in 2026
KRW 9.4 tn
2026–2028 three-year total: KRW 28.8 tn
Commitments of maturing venture funds by year
9.4 tn
2026
10.8 tn
2027
8.7 tn
2028
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01 · 2026 Investment Trends
Prepare exits other than a listing
01
Review acquisition and sale options
(Talking with trustworthy intermediaries matters)
02
Evidence of contracts, profitability and buyer demand
(Organize due diligence materials in advance)
03
A spending-cut plan if follow-on funding is late
(Very few firms avoid restructuring; it is natural)
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02 · Government and Local Funding
2027 Fund of Funds proposal: KRW 1.3 tn
MSS Fund of Funds contribution
2027 government proposal
2027 government proposal
KRW 1.3 tn
vs. 2026 main budget
▲KRW 480 bn · ▲58.5%
▲KRW 480 bn · ▲58.5%
MSS Fund of Funds contribution budget · KRW 100 mn
8,000
2020
8,000
2021
5,200
2022
3,135
2023
4,540
2024
5,000
2025
8,200
2026
13,000
2027
proposal
proposal
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02 · Government and Local Funding
R&D and demonstration budgets: choose by your next validation
MSS R&D, 2027 proposal
KRW 2.55 tn
▲16.3% vs. 2026
MSS R&D budget
KRW 2.20 tn
2026
KRW 2.55 tn
2027 proposal
New: SME Physical AI Demonstration, KRW 172.8 bn
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02 · Government and Local Funding
Commercialization and open innovation budgets more than double
2026
2027 proposal
24 bn
54 bn
Tech Commercialization Package
▲125.0% · bringing tech to market
24.2 bn
54.3 bn
Public-private open innovation
▲124.4% · joint validation with buyers
2026 → 2027 proposal (KRW) · check eligibility and timing
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02 · Government and Local Funding
Local KRW 10 bn grows into a KRW 224.6 bn fund
Gyeonggi Future Growth Fund No. 8
KRW 10 bn → 224.6 bn
Formed with KRW 214.6 bn of private capital
Structure of Gyeonggi Future Growth Fund No. 8
10 bn
Province · GBSA
Private
214.6 bn
214.6 bn
224.6 bn
Fund size
Gyeonggi forms KRW 224.6 bn fund for exporters… 4.5x its targetYonhap News · 2026.05.06
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02 · Government and Local Funding
Regional funds in Seoul and Busan
Committed
Formed
Target
Seoul · city commitment
KRW 60 bn
Seoul · fundraising target
KRW 935 bn
Busan · city contribution
KRW 4.1 bn
Busan · parent fund formed
KRW 55.1 bn
Busan · sub-fund target
KRW 250 bn+
Seoul commits KRW 60 bn to 'Vision 2030 Fund' in first halfYonhap News · 2026.04.19
Busan forms KRW 55.1 bn Future Industry Transition Fund No. 2Yonhap News · 2026.07.27
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02 · Government and Local Funding
Regional funds: check the main-purpose investment rules
Seoul
Located in Seoul
plus field rules: collaboration, global expansion
plus field rules: collaboration, global expansion
Gyeonggi No. 8
HQ or factory in the province
direct or indirect exports, last 2 years
direct or indirect exports, last 2 years
Busan
SMEs and mid-sized firms in the southeast
green and digital transition
green and digital transition
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02 · Government and Local Funding
Each source has its own terms and arrival date (6+ months)
Grants · R&D
Use, settlement and clawback terms
Loans · guarantees
Repayment date · interest · guarantee fee
Equity investment
Dilution · actual payment date
Customer purchases
Gap between contract revenue and cash in
Bank balance ≠ cash you can freely spend
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02 · Government and Local Funding
Six steps from policy funding to company deposit
01
Budget ·
funding plan
funding plan
02
Manager
selection
selection
03
Fund closing ·
paid-in
paid-in
04
Company
screening
screening
05
Contract ·
conditions
conditions
06
Company
deposit
deposit
Manager selected ≠ fund closed ≠ money deposited
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02 · Government and Local Funding
Choose support programs by your core business's next task (prepare early)
01
Paying customers and why they buy
02
Product performance and demand to validate
03
Customer contracts and upkeep after support ends
Check self-funding, reporting and transfer duties first
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02 · Government and Local Funding
Rising policy loan terminations
KOSME policy loan agreements terminated
10,608 → 14,489 cases
2022 → 2024 · ▲36.6%
Main reasons for termination
Closure
Long-term arrears
Rehabilitation
KOSME policy loan agreements terminated
10,608
2022
12,747
2023
14,489
2024
Apply only for programs whose terms you can keep
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03 · 2027 Outlook
2027 scenarios, split by budget, rate and exit signals
Base
Budget confirmed, funds formed in order
prepare for another hike
→ prepare selective fundraising
prepare for another hike
→ prepare selective fundraising
Upside
Check managers' will to deploy early
hikes pause, secondaries grow
→ scale hiring and output in steps
hikes pause, secondaries grow
→ scale hiring and output in steps
Downside
Budget, closings and follow-ons delayed
more hikes, IPOs stay below offer price
→ hold expansion, cut back early
more hikes, IPOs stay below offer price
→ hold expansion, cut back early
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03 · 2027 Outlook
Pre-IPO after a merger, annual contracts after PoCs (tech and revenue together)
$400 mn
Pre-IPO round after merging with Sapeon
Korean AI chipmaker Rebellions raises $400 mn… plans U.S. expansionYonhap News · 2026.03.31
60%
or more
or more
of PoC customers moved
to annual contracts
KRW 3.4 bn pre-Series A
to annual contracts
KRW 3.4 bn pre-Series A
Synthetic-consumer AI firm Intellicia raises KRW 3.4 bn pre-Series A led by Kakao VenturesKakao Ventures · 2026.09.02
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03 · 2027 Outlook
64% of global venture funding goes to AI
AI share of global venture funding, Q3 2026
64%
AI $102 bn
Quarter total $159 bn
Quarter total $159 bn
$102 bn
AI investment
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03 · 2027 Outlook
Highly valued firms outside AI: discounts of up to about 90%
Peak private valuation
Sale price · USD
$17.5 bn
~$1.4 bn
Online whiteboard collaboration tool
$11.7 bn
~$1.3 bn
No-code database and app platform
Bending Spoons enters into a definitive agreement to acquire Miro for $1.355 billionBending Spoons · 2026.09.10
Bending Spoons makes first post-IPO acquisition with $1.3 billion Airtable dealReuters · 2026.08.04
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Cost and cash decisions
04
Choosing a survival strategy
The risk of expansion spending on unconfirmed funding
(the period of false hope)
(the period of false hope)
Hiring and equipment committed first, collections and investment arriving late
Committed hiring and equipment
Revenue and collections still assumed
Investment still under review
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04 · Choosing a Survival Strategy
Bootstrapping vs. investment-led growth (two-track strategy)
Bootstrap-first
Spend within confirmed cash
Repeat purchases, contribution margin, collections first
Investment-led scale-up
Spend in line with funds raised and results
More demand and unit economics first
If short: redesign fixed costs vs. hold expansion, narrow scope
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04 · Choosing a Survival Strategy
Base44, with no outside investment, sold in six months
~$80 mn
Sold to Wix · plus earn-out through 2029
Solely owned by the founder · 8 employees
6-month-old, solo-owned vibe coder Base44 sells to Wix for $80M cashTechCrunch · 2025.06.18
A solo-built AI coding tool sold for KRW 100 bn in six months… what is 'vibe coding'?ZDNet Korea · 2025.06.20
Vibe-coding platform 'Base44' sold for $80 mn after six monthsWOWTALE · 2025.06.19
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04 · Choosing a Survival Strategy
Deep tech: stage-by-stage development costs and follow-on funding
01
Result to
prove
prove
Performance · clinical
certification · yield
certification · yield
02
Pass
criteria
criteria
Number · deadline
who confirms
who confirms
03
Cost ·
time
time
Development · equipment
cost of delay
cost of delay
04
Funding
sources
sources
Investment · R&D
joint development
joint development
05
Next
stage
stage
Customer adoption
follow-on round
follow-on round
06
If short
of target
of target
Narrow · pivot
stop
stop
No one-size-fits-all short-term profit rule
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04 · Choosing a Survival Strategy
Blended financing: separate each source's use and payment date
Possible combinations
Customer collections + R&D
Investment + customer prepayments
Policy funds + private investment
Assumptions to drop from the plan
Grants cover all operating costs (No: extra costs arise)
Every raise includes amounts that must be spent on set items
Money never arrives on the promised date
State goals, performance criteria, spending limits and decision dates
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05 · Deciding with Cash
Bank balance ≠ available cash
300
Current balance
−60
Restricted funds
e.g. taxes
e.g. taxes
−40
Mandatory payments
e.g. severance
e.g. severance
200
Available
cash
cash
Unit: KRW mn
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05 · Deciding with Cash
Unconfirmed inflows overstate runway by 2 months
Excluding unconfirmed funds
Available cash 200 ÷ monthly net burn 50
4 months
Including unconfirmed 100
(200 + 100) ÷ 50 · wrong calculation
6 months
0 mo
1 mo
2 mo
3 mo
4 mo
5 mo
6 mo
Overstated by 2 months
Unit: KRW mn
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05 · Deciding with Cash
Decide to expand, cut back or stop before cash runs out
Expand
Demand and validation confirmed
+ required funds secured
+ required funds secured
Cut back · pivot
Targets missed
funding or collections off schedule
funding or collections off schedule
Stop
Next validation impossible
no other funding or cutback path
no other funding or cutback path
Decision date: while time and a safety margin remain
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05 · Deciding with Cash
AIDIN ROBOTICS: government support and private investment together
Global DIPS commercialization support
2 years, through December 2027
KRW 680 mn
Follow-on private investment
HD Hyundai Robotics · Samsung Venture Investment
KRW 16 bn
AIDIN ROBOTICS raises KRW 16 bn from HD Hyundai Robotics and Samsung Venture Investment… to co-develop robot handsHerald Economy · 2026.09.11
"Leaping ahead in robot parts"… AIDIN ROBOTICS selected for 'Global DIPS'Money Today · 2026.04.06
Treat government support as certification, alongside private investment
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Conclusion
Action plan
Surviving 2027: clear cash, clear results, clear decision dates
01
Record investment, alongside rate hikes and a narrower IPO window
02
Exits beyond listing: prepare for M&A, accept restructuring
03
Public funds: main-purpose rules and a 6+ month lag
04
A two-track strategy: bootstrapping plus fundraising
05
Runway on available, confirmed cash, not the bank balance
06
Government support as certification, alongside private investment
07
Hold expansion spending that relies on unconfirmed funding
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Thank you.
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Appendix · Sources
Sources 1 / 3
Monetary policy decision · first back-to-back hikes in 3 yrs 7 mos (2.50→2.75→3.00%)
Bank of Korea / Yonhap News · 2026-07-16 · 2026-08-27
FOMC statement: target range 3.75–4.00%
U.S. Federal Reserve · 2026-09-16
H1 2026 venture investment results
Ministry of SMEs and Startups · 2026-08-19
Investment trends in AI, deep tech, early-stage and regional firms
Money Today · 2026-08-20
THE VC 2026 Q3 statistics: non-AI early-stage 538→386 deals
WOWTALE · 2026-10-01
VC recovered principal KRW 3.49 tn… sales 52.3% · IPO 33.2%
TopDaily · 2026-07-08
31 of 36 new 2026 listings below IPO price (own count: KIND list, closes)
KIND · Naver Finance · 2026-10-21
MSS Fund of Funds main budget, 2020: KRW 800 bn
Ministry of SMEs and Startups · 2020-02-13
2021 Fund of Funds contribution budget: KRW 800 bn
Newspim · 2020-12-16
2023 Fund of Funds budget confirmed at KRW 313.5 bn (2022: KRW 520 bn)
InvestChosun · 2022-12-26
2024 Fund of Funds main budget: KRW 454 bn
Yonhap News · 2024-01-31
Fund of Funds budget: KRW 500 bn in 2025 · KRW 820 bn in 2026
theBell · 2025-12-11
2027 MSS budget proposal (Fund of Funds, R&D, commercialization)
Ministry of SMEs and Startups / eToday · 2026-09-01
Gyeonggi Future Growth Fund No. 8 closing: announcement and coverage
Gyeonggi Province / Yonhap News / Money Today · 2026-05-06
Seoul Vision 2030 Fund: call for fund managers
Seoul Metropolitan Government / KVCA · 2026-04-08
Seoul Vision 2030 Fund: first-half commitments
Seoul Metropolitan Government / Yonhap News · 2026-04-19
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Appendix · Sources
Sources 2 / 3
Maturing venture funds: KRW 9.36 / 10.76 / 8.70 tn (2026–2028)
DIVA fund status (Sept. 2026 filing) · retrieved 2026-10-21
Busan Future Industry Transition Fund No. 2 closing: announcement and coverage
Busan Metropolitan City / Seoul Shinmun / Yonhap News · 2026-07-27
Gyeonggi Future Growth Fund No. 8: call for proposals
GBSA / KVCA · 2026-01
Gyeonggi SME development fund: investment partnership status
GBSA · retrieved 2026-09-29
KOSME loan terminations 10,608→12,747→14,489 · closure, arrears, rehabilitation
Financial News (Rep. Kim Won-i's office, KOSME data) · 2025-10-22
Sequoia: forecasting, scenarios, and cash and runway management
Sequoia Capital · 2022-06-14
Rebellions-Sapeon merged entity officially launched… "valued at KRW 1.3 tn"
Yonhap News · 2024-12-02
Rebellions announces pre-IPO round and launch of RebelRack and RebelPOD
Rebellions · 2026-03-30
Intellicia announces pre-Series A round
Kakao Ventures · 2026-09-02
Q3 2026 Global Startup Funding
Crunchbase News · 2026-10-05
Venture Monitor Q3 2026 (discounts of up to about 90%)
PitchBook-NVCA · 2026-10
Bending Spoons agrees to acquire Miro
Bending Spoons · 2026-09-10
Airtable acquisition agreement, 8-K (Ex. 99.1) · coverage
SEC EDGAR / Reuters · 2026-08-04
U.S. solo-founder share 24.5%→36.3% (Carta)
Maeil Business · 2026-03-15
Base44 sold to Wix for ~$80 mn in cash · earn-out through 2029
TechCrunch / Wix.com press release · 2025-06-18
A solo-built AI coding tool sold for KRW 100 bn in six months… what is 'vibe coding'?
ZDNet Korea · 2025-06-20
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Appendix · Sources
Sources 3 / 3
Vibe-coding platform 'Base44' sold for $80 mn after six months
WOWTALE · 2025-06-19
AIDIN ROBOTICS selected for Global DIPS: coverage
Money Today / VentureSquare · 2026-04-06
AIDIN ROBOTICS raises KRW 16 bn from HD Hyundai Robotics, Samsung Venture Inv.
Herald Economy · 2026-09-11
Korean AI chipmaker Rebellions raises $400 mn… plans U.S. expansion
Yonhap News · 2026-03-31
Miro · Airtable company profiles
miro.com · airtable.com
Company logos: each company's official website
rebellions.ai · intellicia.ai · miro.com · airtable.com · base44.com
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